How it works

Scoring

Each competition lists its cities and weather categories. For each category — high temperature, low temperature or sustained wind speed — choose below (<), within the displayed range, or above (>).

• Complete every category for every city. The entry page shows the required number of picks and checks it before you pay.
• The middle choice is a range around the forecast, set from how recent forecasts have missed: that airport's own once it has enough history, and all airports' together until then. The three choices are about equally likely. A right pick scores 10 points.
• The middle range includes both ends, and the reading is compared before rounding: with 80.4–83.0°F, 83.0°F is within the range and 83.1°F is above it.
• An incorrect pick scores 0. There are no negative points.

Readings

• Highest temperature: the highest temperature observed during the window.
• Lowest temperature: the lowest temperature observed during the window.
• Highest wind speed: the highest sustained wind speed observed during the window, in knots.

All observations come from NOAA's reports for the airport station named beside each city. A full-day competition scores all three categories; a daytime window has highs and wind, and a night window has lows and wind.

The bold forecast values are NOAA's forecasts. They are not adjusted by the historical model. The model sets the three pick ranges from past forecast errors. Forecasts help you choose; observed weather decides the score.

Deadlines and results

• Submit your picks and finish paying before entries close. Observations start at that time, and every entry's picks become public. Start times use your local time zone. Duration is the length of the observation window.
• While the window is live, the leaderboard scores the readings so far and can still change.
• Once the window ends, the competition is awaiting results. Stations report hourly, so the final result can arrive later than the observation window's end. The oracle signs once the signing time has passed and all required observations are verified. If coverage never becomes complete, the contract expires and entrants can recover their funds.
• When the oracle signs, the competition is finished: the leaderboard stops changing and payout processing begins.
• Tied scores share a rank. If a tie spans the last paid place, the entry submitted first is paid.

Following your picks

While the window is live, each pick shows the reading so far and the points it would score if the window ended now. Highs and winds can only rise and lows can only fall, so some picks settle before the window ends:

Locked in

Right, and nothing left in the window can change it.

Out

Wrong, and nothing left in the window can change it.

Awaiting oracle

The window has closed; the oracle's own reading decides.

Final

The oracle's signed result.

Entries and pools

• One entry per player. Each account enters a competition once, unless its page says it allows more.
• A competition accepts entries up to its listed limit and splits them into pools of up to 25 when entries close. Each pool runs as its own competition, with its own pot and leaderboard.
• A pool needs a minimum number of players. The entry page shows the current minimum, which can rise when Bitcoin network fees increase.
• A competition's page shows how its prizes split. In one that pays two places, a pool of 10 or more players pays 70% of its pot to 1st and 30% to 2nd; a smaller pool's winner takes it all.
• If a competition or pool doesn't get enough entries, it doesn't run. Funded entries follow the refund process below.

Entry fees and prizes

• The entry fee is the total you pay over Lightning. The payment button and invoice show that total.
• Prizes are sent automatically to the Lightning Address you confirm when entering. If you use invoice payouts, submit a Lightning invoice on the Payouts page. The entry page tells you where prizes and refunds will go before you pay.
• If a competition doesn't run, its funded entry payments are refunded to the Lightning Address confirmed when entering. Refund processing starts after the escrow's refund time; cancellation does not return the payment immediately. Refunds return the escrow amount minus the refund swap fee.